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Costs > Benefits

If you ask almost anyone speaking out against the Iran War, including the list above of formerly-loyal Trump supporters, they’ll tell you they DO NOT support Iran! Indeed, the ruling regime may be the worst on Earth, which has been reinforced by its launching attacks on almost all Middle Eastern countries, while trying to strangle the world economy in the Strait of Hormuz. It’s simply that the costs of removing the regime (and by some miracle getting a stable government in its place) far outweigh the benefits. You’re talking about a firmly entrenched regime that’s held power for decades, is well-funded by massive oil wealth, has connections to terrorist groups all over the world, and has a radicalized population within 92 million people. Even if most of the Irani people hate the regime in power, are they going to suddenly start loving Israel and the U.S. as they watch their homes and economy get destroyed while friends & family members are dying?

As in all wars, unintended consequences and unforeseen events are occurring. Trump is now in a bit of no-win situation in which he has two choices: 1) Leave the existing regime in power, in which case it will be even more radicalized and seeking future revenge, with plenty of oil money to quickly rebuild, or 2) Take the deeply unpopular and very costly move of sending in large amounts of American ground troops, who would likely have to stay for a while to ensure a transition of power to whatever government took its place.

We should have learned these lessons from the Iraq debacle, which is why Trump’s many promises of no new wars or an Iran campaign earned him large scale support in all three of his elections. (Note: if you have a short memory and haven’t seen any of the hundreds of tweets & videos showing pre-election positions of Trump and his staff, I beg you to explore some other media sources besides Fox News and its clones.)

Just a reminder that after spending $6 trillion and taking the lives of a million people, Trump had to deal with Iraqi ISIS in his first term, 13 years after Bush Jr invaded. And Iraq was mostly a secular nation before the war. In Iran, you have a nation that is twice the population of Iraq and is dominated by far more religious extremists. A costly war was relatively easy to predict, as pre-election Trump told us.

When it comes to war, it’s tough to call anything “benefits,” but it’s tough to find any for the U.S. or most of the world, at least in the short term. So, who does benefit? Stock markets are generally a good reflection of national economies. Almost all markets around the world have dropped significantly since the start of the war. Most of Europe and Asia have seen their markets drop 10+ percent. The U.S. markets have so far been limited to 5 percent thanks to more domestic oil sources (credit Trump on this one, as Kamala would have crippled American energy). However, one market has gone in the opposite direction. Can you guess? Take a look at the Tel Aviv chart since the start of the Iran War:

Israeli stocks surged 15 percent initially. After a quick campaign became unlikely, it dropped, but it’s still up about 8 percent. Oh, and there’s one other country’s market that’s up, one that has benefitted perhaps more than anyone from this campaign — Russia, which is raking in enormous oil profits and has the world’s attention diverted. Plus, due to our expensive support of Ukraine, Russia is helping Iran fight back against us. I guess these are just more of those unintended consequences, which maybe reinforces the argument to just stay the fuck out of these wars!

Blog Link: https://educationdojo.com/study-break/2026/03/03-19-education-dojo-daily/#random_thoughts

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